Expedition is an absolute stand out though with roughly a 10% greater decline than even the worst previously performing league. Having said that though, the 9 day player drop is worst for Expedition followed by Heist, Synthesis and then Blight. There's very little evidence of major external influences such as summer holidays, pandemic or anything else. So excluding the outliers of Ritual and Ultimatum, Expedition was actually on par for initial performance. Ritual and Ultimatum jumped to around 155k and then Expedition dropped to 116k. More broadly, from Betrayal through to Heist, launch day populations are relatively consistent around 110k with the notable exception of Blight at 75k. A combination of power players completing their goals rapidly and other players not engaging with and continuing the league. Synthesis can be attributed as the first of the logarithmic player decline leagues characterised by significant player decline in the early portion of the league. While more players are playing the game, it seems they are doing so for a short burst then returning for the next league. It's also the start of a steeper daily decline in player numbers. Harbinger was the first massive player spike league with a near 50% player increase from the previous league. Leagues generally consisted of a reasonably simple mechanic and while this piqued interest and resulted in a player spike above the baseline, it wasn't huge and player decline from league launch is a very gradual rate.Ģ. There's three observable phases in the development of the game:ġ. It's actually quite interesting to download the full league history of PoE and graph the data. You were simply relying on the data source to display the correct data and you weren't to know that the site was flawed. So that's the solution to our conundrum and is certainly not your fault. The 1 Feb 21 date data you had from SC indicates 90,539 and SDB indicates 90,952 so again near identical but as we've discovered that the start date was wrong, 1 Feb 21 is actually day 18 of the league and not day 35. That's just poor data representation skills on their behalf. Totally not your fault as SC doesn't explain on their site how they manage these types of situations, and it's pretty strange how they display the correct peak number but don't correlate the date correctly. That date is actually day 193 of Heist and had a player peak of 14,613. SC however shows you the correct data but because it's truncating the dates it tells you the league launched on 28 Dec 20. However, the daily data on SDB shows that the league launched on which is also confirmed on the wiki: It's pretty easy to tell just by eyeballing the data as you have a sudden massive player spike on launch day. One issue I've noted with using Steam Charts is that as you look at larger periods of time, it condenses the data points so you can't look at individual days any longer.įor example, launch day for Ritual was 157,103 on SteamDB (SDB) and 157,091 on Steam Charts (SC), so close as to be negligible. This allows me to look at each individual day for each league and run a formula that automatically calculates the percentage decrease. The data is almost identical (slight variations likely attributable to point in time extraction of data) but the big benefit of the latter site is you can extract the data into excel (see the down arrow on the top right corner of the graph. I started out using steam charts but after another player pointed out to me this site: I've been using that instead. If Royale didn't exist then that 54k would actually be closer to 51k.Īll good mate and your calculation method is correct but I think the difference is in the data source. Since Royale wasn't in previous leagues the comparisons of drop off players might actually be more severe than the current steam chart numbers suggest as previously people who did not enjoy the league and didn't play standard would just quit the game and move on to other games, now with Royale mode some of these players may still be playing poe by purely playing Royale.įor example, todays peak was 54k, let's create a total random number guess and say 5% of that 54k were purely playing Royale, they weren't playing the league at all. So when people are comparing drop off relative to other leagues Royale is a factor that should be considered. My post was suggesting that Royale may be inflating the numbers of people still playing as they are counted in those charts. My post was stating that anyone logging into poe client is counted in those steam chart numbers, not just league players. You appear to have really misunderstood my post.
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